Sick of trying to predict the end of the world or how about something less mundane like the probability that
Intrade is a futures market based on political and current affairs predictions. It allows you to speculate on the probability of an event occurring. The exchange is structured around a group of trading categories, such as politics and current events. Each category has a set of contracts listed. A contract being an event that will have an unambiguous result, like will obahma be assassinated by a ranting libertarian nutjob before June 30 2010.
You then trade on what you think the outcome of that event will be. Each event has a time constraint at which point the contract will close. For example if obahma gets assassinated on June 30 the contract will close at 100 points, if he lives to socialise another day the contract will close at 0.
Until he is either assassinated or the deadline is reached the contract will fluctuate between 0 and 100. The price at anyone time is representative of what probability the market places on the event occurring. You can trade in and out of the contract as many times as you like prior to it elapsing.
Like any good futures market … if you want to max your profit, so you can buy that little 9 hole golf course up at Port Douglas, you need to take positions against the market … buy when the market thought an outcome was unlikely and sell when the market thinks its very likely.
Good luck …. Just remember futures have the capacity to make you either extremely wealthy or extremely poor … no risk no return.
Ps ... if this is your thing id get in quick before big kev or the grand o try and ban it!!