The Wild West ... the outback ... The new world of the 1800s was a time of true liberty. People stood on their own merits. They won or they lost and they reaped the rewards or swallowed the consequences. There were no cubicle dwelling civil servants hell bent on saving you from yourself. No planning permits no licenses no permissions no heritage overlay no bylaw no regulators no inspectors. And guess what ... it worked

This site is set up to provide a forum for a number of like minded professional economists to post and comment on contemporary issues. There are a number of regular contributors whose bios are made available on the site. Most if not all of these contributors use a pseudonym for the simple reason that they are practicing economists who must take into consideration the commercial implications of posting their opinions.

While some may feel that this is a bit of a gutless approach it is the only way we can ensure free and open discussion without jeopardising our paycheques.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Futures in everything (Roy Rodgers)

Sick of trying to predict the end of the world or how about something less mundane like the probability that Israel will bomb Iran … well has Roy got the website for you!


Intrade is a futures market based on political and current affairs predictions. It allows you to speculate on the probability of an event occurring. The exchange is structured around a group of trading categories, such as politics and current events. Each category has a set of contracts listed. A contract being an event that will have an unambiguous result, like will obahma be assassinated by a ranting libertarian nutjob before June 30 2010.

You then trade on what you think the outcome of that event will be. Each event has a time constraint at which point the contract will close. For example if obahma gets assassinated on June 30 the contract will close at 100 points, if he lives to socialise another day the contract will close at 0.

Until he is either assassinated or the deadline is reached the contract will fluctuate between 0 and 100. The price at anyone time is representative of what probability the market places on the event occurring. You can trade in and out of the contract as many times as you like prior to it elapsing.

Like any good futures market … if you want to max your profit, so you can buy that little 9 hole golf course up at Port Douglas, you need to take positions against the market … buy when the market thought an outcome was unlikely and sell when the market thinks its very likely.

Good luck …. Just remember futures have the capacity to make you either extremely wealthy or extremely poor … no risk no return.

Ps ... if this is your thing id get in quick before big kev or the grand o try and ban it!!


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